Bob Shiller on Home Prices and Job Growth

These charts are from Bob Shiller. The first scatter gram compares the unemployment rate with the change in home prices in the 12 months through April, 2015.  There is no obvious pattern orrelation between unemployment rates and the change in home prices.  The second scatter gram tells a different story: the faster employment grew over the year ending April 2015 (the horizontal axis), the faster home prices rose in the same time period (vertical axis).   Job growth, not unemployment, matters for home prices.   Click on the charts for a larger image.

The home price data is from the latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Unemployment rate and growth in employment data are from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

From This Morning’s S&P/Case-Shiller Release

The table shows the high and low index levels and dates for the 20 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index cities.  The chart shows the recent evolution of the year-over-year change in the S&P/Case-Shiller National Index.  Since late 2013 the year-over-year gains have dropped from an unsustainable double digit pace and now may be leveling off with […]

Home Price Gains Ease in April According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

  Data through April 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.  S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – April 2015

U.S. Economic Forecast: The Terrible Twos

Recent data suggest the U.S. economy has rebounded fairly well from its contraction in the first quarter of the year, giving financial-market participants, as well as American businesses and consumers, reason to be somewhat optimistic. Job gains accelerated after a lull in March, and housing activity strengthened after a deep winter chill. Also, at long […]

Upbeat Housing Reports

Two recent data points – existing home sales and mortgage debt outstanding – point to continued strength in the housing recovery. May total existing home sales, including single family homes, town houses and condominiums, were 5.35 million, up 5.1% and the highest figure since November 2009. Sales of single family homes were 4.73 million, 5.6% […]

National Consumer Credit Default Rates Reach New Lows in May 2015 According to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Data is through May 2015. S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Press Release – June 2015

U.S. Weekly Economic Roundup: Supporting Our Expectations

Neither the Federal Reserve’s minutes to April’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting nor Chair Janet Yellen’s speech this week gave any clear indication of a time frame for interest rate liftoff. Fed Chair Yellen said an initial rate liftoff this year is “appropriate” if the economy continues to improve as forecast. She expects the subsequent […]

Late Spring For Housing

Housing starts surged in April with strong gains in single family homes as well as two to four unit and five or more unit buildings. Construction of single family homes has been lagging in recent years. If the gains are confirmed by next month’s numbers, maybe housing will finally have a late spring season.  Sales […]

National Credit Default Rates Reach Historical Lows in April 2015 According to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Data is through April 2015. S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Press Release – May 2015

Will Millennials start buying homes?

Perhaps the best reflection of the economic pressures Millennials face can be seen in the U.S. housing market. The pace of household formation and the rate at which Millennials head their own households is declining. In fact, detailed data show that the drop in homeownership during the financial crisis was the largest for people ages […]

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