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3 Comments
In looking at the tier data for Chicago (both sa and non-sa), each of the tier indices are down more than the aggregate index for Chicago. How can this be the case? Thanks!
Just about a year ago, S&P came out with guidence regarding the use of non-seasonally adjusted HPIs. Is this still in effect?
A second question, since most forecasts use a SA HPI series to forecast and if SA series are less reliable I’d assume that forecasts would reflect the SA bias? If true, what do you suggest for HPI forecasting?
Thanks,
GregYes, we continue to believe the non-seasonally adjusted data are a more reliable guide because foreclosures are distorting the normal seasonal patterns.
On forecasting — Since S&P Indices publishes the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, we do not forecast them. In general, most statistical or econometric forecasting models use seasonally adjusted data. In most cases it is simpler to use the seasonally adjusted data than to rebuild the forecasting model.
How the Cities Did
While the headline results for S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, helped by the Spring-Summer selling season, looked good this time, there still is a lot of local variation from city to city. The first table shows how the cities compare to one-another over the last few years. Six made new lows in April, led by some of the same places that were at the center of the boom: Miami, Tampa and Las Vegas. Phoenix, another formerly hot market, made its low last month. California has a different and better story – Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco are all above their recent lows. Washington remains one of the strongest cities and Detroit the weakest.
As seen in the trough dates, 12 cities and the 20-City composite reached their lows this year, the balance about a year ago. The hope is that the list of 2011-lows doesn’t continue to grow.
Cities showing peaks and troughs
Speaking to reporters around the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, everyone wants to know how their home town compares to others. The second table shows each city’s rank based on month-month, year-over-year and since January 2000 index changes. January 2000 is the base date for the indices, something like the inception date for a mutual fund. The names are ordered according to their month-month results for April 2011. Washington DC is the big winner. If one averages the three ranks, New York and Los Angeles are second and third. Las Vegas and Detroit and the last two using the averages of the ranks.
Cities Ranked by Price Gains Monthly, Annual, Since 2000