First mortgage default rates lead November increase in the national composite

On December 20, S&P Indices and Experian released November data for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, which measure changes in consumer credit defaults. The data showed an increase in the composite index, led by an increase in first mortgage and bank card default rates. Auto loan and second mortgages saw drops in their default rates; however, the national composite rose with first mortgages.

As seen in the graph below, and as we indicated last month, the weight of first mortgage default rates tends to drive the trend in the national. First mortgage default rates rose for the third consecutive month, leading the same pattern for the composite.

S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. Sources: S&P Indices and Experian

In November, first mortgage default rates rose to 2.17%, from 2.08% in October. This is the third time we have seen an increase in first mortgage default rates since November 2010. The composite has also risen in each of those three months, from 2.04% to 2.22%. Second mortgage default rates fell moderately to 1.26% in November from 1.29% in October, and are at about the same rate they were three month’s ago.

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3 Trackbacks

  1. By Fannie Mae December 2011 Economic Outlook on December 21, 2011 at 10:00 am

    [...] inventory. First mortgage default rates rose from October 2011 to November 2011 according to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Which could mean more [...]

  2. [...] On December 20, S&P Indices and Experian released November data for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, which measure changes in consumer credit defaults. The data showed an increase in the composite index, led by an increase in first mortgage and bank card default rates. Auto loan and second mortgages saw drops in their default rates; however, the national composite rose with first mortgages.Source: housingviews.com [...]

  3. [...] inventory. First mortgage default rates rose from October 2011 to November 2011 according to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Which could mean more [...]

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