November 2011 data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were released on Tuesday January 31st, revealing monthly declines in condo prices in all five of the metro areas covered by our indices – Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. The Chicago index reported the largest decline, down 3.8%, in November versus October. The Boston index was next, falling by 1.6%. Condo prices in New York fell by 0.4% in November, the smallest decline of the five cities.
With November’s report, Chicago posted the largest annual decline,
-9.7%. Chicago condo prices fell in each of September, October and November by a cumulative 6.6%. Los Angeles condo prices have fallen 16 consecutive months. The index was down 8.1% in November 2011 versus November 2010 and hit a new crisis low in November 2011. San Francisco’s condo market is now down seven consecutive months and also posted a new crisis low in November. Average condo prices in San Francisco are down 7.5% versus November 2010. Boston and New York prices showed annual declines of 2.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
The chart below compares the index levels for the five condo markets covered by the indices, rebased to 1995 = 100. The grey, blue and red lines represent Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco, respectively. Chicago is well below the other cities, showing that average condo prices are back to their mid-2000 levels, the same values as almost 12 years ago. On average Los Angeles condo market prices are back to their mid-2003 levels; while San Francisco prices are back to mid-2002 levels.
On a relative basis the New York condo market is the most stable, as the table below highlights. New York condo prices showed the most modest declines on both a monthly and an annual basis in November. Across all cities, however, both the single-family home and condos markets weakened as we entered the winter months. As the table below indicates, Chicago is the weakest across both markets.
The chart below illustrates the differences between Chicago and New York over almost 17 years. The green line clearly shows the New York condo market is the best relative performer coming out of the recent crisis. New York condo prices are still up over 165% versus January 1995, whereas Chicago prices are up only about 37%. By comparing the green and grey lines, you can see that the New York condo market has been fairly stable over the past three years; whereas the Chicago market continues to weaken. The Chicago condo market has fallen by 32.9% since its September 2007 peak; but the New York market has only fallen by 14.0% from its February 2006 peak.