Category Archives: Economic Data

Looking at Home Prices

Four cities have set new all-time highs for prices, two are more than 20% above their pre-crisis peaks: (click on table or chart for larger image) Home prices are much more volatile than rents and are rising a bit faster currently: With inflation quite low, the real and nominal home prices track one-another, unlike the […]

Home Prices Are Rising Faster Than You Think

Prices of existing single family homes, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price index, are rising is single digit terms.  However, the price changes that matter – the real or inflation adjusted changes – may be higher than many suspect. Backing out inflation, as shown in the chart, gives real increases averaging 6.3% annually […]

U.S. Weekly Economic Roundup: What’s The Rush?

The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is shaping up to be a real cliffhanger. The minutes of July’s meeting didn’t give a clear signal regarding the September move for a rate hike. It is clear, however, that the participants are not in agreement yet. The Fed’s downside risks have increased since their meeting […]

U.S. Weekly Economic Roundup: Still On Track

The first set of data for the third quarter has been more positive than negative. Last week we saw solid employment numbers and business sentiment. This week, the positives continued to outweigh the negatives. Even revisions of key second-quarter data points are now showing that the economy may have in fact expanded at closer to […]

Mortgage Demand Up, Some Softening of Credit Standards

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey was published this week and shows both an increase in the demand for mortgages and that some banks have eased their credit standards somewhat.  While neither of these shifts heralds a huge boom, they are welcome news.  Click on the chart for a larger image. The full survey can be […]

Bob Shiller on Home Prices and Job Growth

These charts are from Bob Shiller. The first scatter gram compares the unemployment rate with the change in home prices in the 12 months through April, 2015.  There is no obvious pattern orrelation between unemployment rates and the change in home prices.  The second scatter gram tells a different story: the faster employment grew over […]

From This Morning’s S&P/Case-Shiller Release

The table shows the high and low index levels and dates for the 20 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index cities.  The chart shows the recent evolution of the year-over-year change in the S&P/Case-Shiller National Index.  Since late 2013 the year-over-year gains have dropped from an unsustainable double digit pace and now may be leveling off with […]

U.S. Economic Forecast: The Terrible Twos

Recent data suggest the U.S. economy has rebounded fairly well from its contraction in the first quarter of the year, giving financial-market participants, as well as American businesses and consumers, reason to be somewhat optimistic. Job gains accelerated after a lull in March, and housing activity strengthened after a deep winter chill. Also, at long […]

Upbeat Housing Reports

Two recent data points – existing home sales and mortgage debt outstanding – point to continued strength in the housing recovery. May total existing home sales, including single family homes, town houses and condominiums, were 5.35 million, up 5.1% and the highest figure since November 2009. Sales of single family homes were 4.73 million, 5.6% […]

National Consumer Credit Default Rates Reach New Lows in May 2015 According to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Data is through May 2015. S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Press Release – June 2015


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