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How the Cities Did

February’s data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were a bit disappointing with nine cities — Tampa, Las Vegas, New York, Seattle, Portland OR, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte and Cleveland all making new post-boom lows.  After all this, Las Vegas still holds the unenviable record for the largest peak-to-trough drop of 62%.  The two composites also made new lows as shown on the table:

Nine New Lows

Another comparison of the cities is seen in the chart. The vertical axis shows the decline from the peak and the horizontal axis shows the peak gain from January 2000. The best spot would be the upper right hand corner — huge gains and no declines. The dotted lines show price appreciation — the dashed red line indicates a 4% annual gain.  Most cities are in the middle area ranging from Dallas and Denver down and to the right to San Francisco — these did OK but not great. Toward the lower left hand corner is Detroit with a deep decline following very modest gains in the boom.  The Sunbelt is together on the lower right.  Moving towards the upper right corner in the shaded area are New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles. These global cities seem to follow global trends as much as domestic economics.  No surprise that the buyers making news in these three cities often come from overseas.  The design of the chart is due to Prof. Joseph Pagliari of the University of Chicago; the data are the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

Comparing the Cities

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Upbeat News

Good news on housing seems like an oxymoron to most people but today brought two examples. The front page of the Wall Street Journal carries a story, “Stunned Buyers Find the Bidding Wars on Back.”  Yes, the Journal blames the competition on a supply shortage rather than excessive demand, but if there’s anything likely to make buyers accept higher prices, it’s losing a deal to another buyer.   Likewise, if the house down the street sells above the asking price, the next one put on sale will be at a higher asking price.  If this spreads it could possibly spark somewhat higher prices.  The second piece of news reflects much of the recent data on housing starts but is more comprehensive.  The first quarter GDP report, released this morning, shows that residential construction rose at a 19% real annual rate in the quarter adding 0.4 percentage points to the 2.2% real GDP growth for quarter. Housing is making its traditional recovery contribution.  These good news items don’t guarantee we are about to see a housing rebound. But combined with some other upbeat news including the somewhat better year-over-year figures in the last S&P/Case-Shiller Home report for the 10- and 20-city series and improvements in starts and sales, suggests that the upturn may not be years away.

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S&P’s Housing Conference: Different Fundamentals for Housing Finance

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ U.S. Public Finance Housing Conference brings together respected industry participants with our team of housing analysts to discuss key topics in the affordable housing industry. The 2012 conference theme is “A New Foundation: Different Fundamentals for Housing Finance.” The conference will be held April 30-May 2, 2012, in Huntington Beach, California.

This event provides a venue to discuss Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ views of the current state of the housing industry and the economy across the public and private sectors, and our forward-looking view of the market in both the near- and long-terms. In addition to our public finance team, senior analysts covering state and local governments, financial institutions, real estate investment trusts, residential and commercial mortgage-backed-securities and the homebuilders industry, will offer their perspectives on housing in the U.S.

Our interactive conference focuses on cutting-edge housing finance strategies in relation to capital market investment, and the related credit-worthiness of housing financings. Our audience includes state housing finance agencies, local housing issuers, public housing authorities, housing investment bankers, developers, investors and financial advisors.

David H. Stevens, executive director of the Mortgage Bankers Association, will be our keynote speaker.  Don Hansen, the mayor of the City of Huntington Beach, will give remarks.  Other speakers include Michael Stegman, counsel to the U.S. Treasury Secretary; Beth Ann Bovino, deputy chief economist, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services; Howard Zucker, partner, Hawkins Delafield & Wood; and David Blitzer, managing director, S&P Indices.

We’d like to thank this year’s conference sponsors: Novogradac, Morgan Keegan, Raymond James, First Southwest and Merchant Capital.  We’d also like to thank The Bond Buyer and The Wall Street Journal for providing complimentary copies of their newspapers to our attendees during the three-day conference.  Many thanks to Affordable Housing Report for their support of our conference.

To register for the conference, go to www.events.standardandpoors.com and choose “2012 Housing Conference” from the events schedule.  You may also contact our Events Marketing team at 212-438-2800 or seminars@standardandpoors.com.

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Video: CNBC Exclusive Interview with Maureen Maitland on U.S. Home Prices for March

Maureen Maitland, Vice President, S&P Indices, discusses the latest data results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street.

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Condo prices hit new crisis lows in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco

February 2012 data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Condo Price Indices were published on Tuesday April 24th, revealing that condo prices fell in all five of the metro areas covered by our indices – Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. All five cities have shown falling condo prices for at least five consecutive months and are down on an annual basis.

The Chicago index reported the largest decline, down 2.4%, in February versus January. The San Francisco index was next, falling by 1.5%. Condo prices in Boston, Los Angeles and New York fell by 1.1%, 0.1% and 0.3% in February, respectively.

With February’s report, Chicago posted the largest annual decline,-9.1%, with all of the weakness coming in the last six months. Chicago condo prices have fallen each month in September through February by a cumulative 16.5%. In addition, Chicago posted a new low in February 2012. With an index level of 97.66, average condo prices in Chicago are back to their October 1999 levels.

Los Angeles condo prices have fallen 19 consecutive months, were down 6.7% at an annual rate and also hit a new crisis low in February 2012. San Francisco’s condo market has fallen 10 consecutive months and also posted a new crisis low in February. Average condo prices in San Francisco are down 6.4% versus February 2011. Boston showed an annual decline of 1.2%; the New York market was down 0.9%. While New York has not seen as large declines as the other markets in the last six months, it too has hit a new post-crisis low.

The chart below compares the index levels for the five condo markets covered by the indices, rebased to 1995 = 100. The grey, blue and red lines represent Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco, respectively. Chicago is well below the other cities, showing that average condo prices are back to their October 1999 levels. On average Los Angeles condo market prices are back to their mid-2003 levels; while San Francisco prices are back to early-2002 levels.

S&P/Case-Shiller Condo Price Indices. Sources: S&P Indices and Fiserv

As measured by both home and condo prices, the Boston and New York condo market are relatively more stable, as the table below highlights. The New York condo market is down 0.9% on an annual basis; while Boston is down 1.2%. This compares to the other three annual declines of at least 6.4%. While we are observing differences across the regions, both home and condo prices remain relatively weak across all five markets.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home and Condo Price Indices, comparative statistics

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Nine Cities and Both Composites Hit New Lows in February 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Indices released today the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data is through February 2012. To access click: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – April 2012 Release

Posted in Existing Home Sales and Months Supply, Homebuilders, Housing Data, Housing Finance & Policy, S&P/Case-Shiller Indices | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Consumer default rates almost back to levels seen before the housing crisis

On April 17th, S&P Indices and Experian released March data for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, which measure consumer credit default rates. March data showed a sharp decline in the composite index, led by a 14 basis point drop in first mortgage default rates. While having a much smaller weight in the composite, second mortgage default rates fell by even more during the month, 17 basis points. The national composite declined to 1.96% in March from its 2.09% February rate, the first mortgage default rate decreased from February’s 2.02% to March’s 1.88% and the second mortgage rates declined from 1.20% in February to 1.03% in March.

With March’s data, first and second mortgage, auto and composite default rates all reached post-recession lows.

As seen in the graph below, consumer default rates are close to their pre-crisis rates, with the first mortgage and composite rates around those last witnessed in the summer of 2007, and the second mortgage rates back to mid-2006 levels. Another sign of progress in the repair of consumer debt.

S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Sources: S&P Indices and Experian.

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Economic Update: Still Looking For a Bounce

This week showed that housing starts tumbled in March. The surprise in the report was a hefty drop in multi-family home construction. And to add more fuel to housing market worries, builder confidence for April fell three notches from the March level. But although U.S. consumers aren’t buying up homes in large numbers right now, they sure were confident in opening up their wallets a little more at the malls in March.

My colleague, Sonika Tyagi, discusses on this weeks Economic Update on  Credit Matters TV.  To view the segment, click here.

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First, Second Mortgage Default Rates Fall for 3rd Consecutive Month

Data through March 2012, released today by S&P Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults showed that, with the exception of bank card, all loan types saw a decrease in default rates for the third consecutive month. For the complete release click here: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices – April Release

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Debt De-Leveraging, Housing and the Recovery

Most houses are bought with mortgages and interest rates and the availability of mortgage money are key issues for the hoped-for housing recovery.  But the links among debts, housing and the economy run much deeper.  Debt levels and especially a surge in household debt, such as experienced with mortgages beginning in 2000, played a big part in the housing boom and bust and the subsequent economic downturn.  The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook includes a chapter chronicling the link between debts, the damage associated with paying off – or defaulting – those debts and the severity of the recession.  In short, the bigger the surge in household debts to propel the housing boom, the deeper the subsequent housing bust and the nastier the recession.  The villain in the recession? we have met the enemy it is our own debt.

The chart shows debt levels for mortgages, non-financial business, financial business and the government as a percentage of GDP over the last 30 or so years. Mortgage debt, measured as percentage of GDP climbed from a bit under half in 2000 to over three-quarters in 2007 before slipping back to 65% in 2011. (Data for the first quarter of 2012 is expected in early June from the Federal Reserve.)  Financial sector debt, which includes the impact of mortgages, is also down since 2007 while non-financial business debts are leveling off. Government debt continues to climb.

What Goes Up... May Come Down

The IMF analysis also includes cases studies of the US efforts to support home owners and limit foreclosures in the 1930s and again today.  The foreclosure crisis of the Great Depression in the 1930s was far worse than today and the response was far larger.  Then the government formed the Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) which bought mortgages from banks (in exchange for government-guaranteed bonds) and then re-negotiated terms with home owners. The HOLC bought one million mortgages of which 80% met the revised payment schedules and did not default.  This saved 16% of all outstanding mortgages from default.  The biggest difference between the 1930s and the 2008 housing bust is probably the political environment. The public pressure for aggressive efforts to relieve household debt problems and prevent defaults was far greater in the 1930s than what we see today amidst worries over the federal government’s deficit, spending and tax policies.

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